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My view is that these prediction are just that and should be treated with caution. There are increasing signs of recession in the USA, where house prices, influenced by the sub prime fiasco, have fallen between 10 and 15% and look set to fall further inthe next year as teh crash spreads. The losses by banks on both sides of the Atlantic leading to the 'credit crunch' and the fall in the dollar are beginning to affect industrial output, especially in Germany. The likelihood will be a European slowdown, exacerbated by stock market issues. The possibility of a full blow recession in both the USA and Europe cannot be discounted.
As these two areas generate a large per centage of tourist journey starts then the WTO figures may well prove over optimistic even if China and India escape the effects of a downturn.
Fortunately the current underprovision of hotels in the UK means that the market there at least should continue strong leading in to the Olympics in 2012 and the Commonwwealth Games in 2014. However a decline in business traffic would affect the German market strongly, and any decrease in City Break traffic would impact Eastern Europe in particular.
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