Francesco Frangialli said yesterday in Madrid: "The best prediction we can give ... is that we do not predict negative growth for 2008, except if the American economy falls into a deep recession followed by the rest of the world."

The credit crisis caused by the gambling of major banks such as Societe General on 'futures' (well what would you call it if not gambling?) and subprime mortgage lenders (like lending to a drunk and then being suprised when he vomits in your lap)appears to have put all the major financial institutions in a blue funk.That has made them scared apparently to even answer their phones to people wanting to borrow money - banks that won't lend money? Perhaps we shoud all be cheering that their tables have been turned over?

For several years the UK has been an expensive option for US tourists, who are in any case only 10% of world travellers. Those in the luxury sector, on the evidence of past recessions, are less affected than those on a budget. This tends to allow five star hotels to ride out a recession comfortably whilst the three star and below hotel garners those trading down from four stars - leaving the four star operations carrying the brunt of any impact.

As far as the refurbishment industry in the UK is concerned this may allow us to cope with the demands running up to 2012 (Olympics) by slightly lessening the demand for skilled caftsmen and design skills. Other countries may have different problems with Africa in real trouble.

In Nigeria the continuing disintegration of civil society has effectively closed the tourism industry, whilst there is the first hint that South Africa may lose the 2010 world cup because of the government's incompetent management of the energy industry, currently causing power blackouts randomly across the country. This is unlikely to impact the longer term plans of hotels groups such as Intercontinental, Accor and Radisson who have all announced major development investments in South Africa.

We live in interesting times...