Now a report from the South African Reserve Bank confirms the growth, putting income growth by the industry between 2000 and 2006 as a growth by value from $12.65 billion to $28.93 billion, representing an annual average growth rate higher than 10% over the period. Growth between now and 2010 when the world cup arrives is likely to be higher as the growth in the regions tourism accelerates. This growth would be considerably helped if Magabe's ('Mad Bob' as South Africans call him) detention centre north of the border were to return to normal living, as the recovery of the Zimbabwean economy would give a further larger boost to the region.

Even without normality in Zimbabwe, the expectation is that across the region there will be a growth in over 4 million jobs within the tourism sector. Economic growth will be led by oil rich Anglola where there are now growth rates of 17%.

The Bank's Review identifies corruption as one of the biggest threats to this growth rate, whilst expecting growth through the whole of sub-Saharan Africa to be around 7%. Whilst there are risks of the banking contagion spreading throughout the globe, the theory that the emerging economies have to a large extent 'decoupled' from the US economy lifts hopes that the region will avoid any downturn.


Patrick Goff